Plausibility and probability in scenario planning

Plausibility and probability in deductive reasoning

We consider the problem of rational uncertainty about unproven mathematical statements, which Gödel and others have remarked on. Using Bayesian-inspired arguments we build a normative model of fair bets under deductive uncertainty which draws from both probability and the theory of algorithms. We comment on connections to Zeilberger’s notion of “semi-rigorous proofs”, particularly that inherent...

Probability, Confidence, and Twombly's Plausibility Standard

Similarity, plausibility, and judgments of probability.

Judging the strength of an argument may underlie many reasoning and decision-making tasks. In this article, we focus on "category-based" arguments, in which the premises and conclusion are of the form All members of C have property P, where C is a natural category. An example is "Dobermans have sesamoid bones. Therefore, German shepherds have sesamoid bones." The strength of such an argument is...

What is the plausibility of probability?

We present and examine a result related to uncertainty reasoning, namely that a certain plausibility measure of Cox’s type can be uniquely embedded in a minimal ordered field. This, although a purely mathematical result, can be claimed to imply that every rational method to reason with uncertainty must be based on sets of extended probability distributions, where extended probability is standar...

Future studies and scenario planning for health services development in Makran coastal Region